Here’s where I go out on a predictatory (yes, I know it’s not a word, but it should be) limb for the first time this awards season and posit who I think will win each award and sometimes why. Check back here on Sunday, as I update this page live and keep a running tally of my successes or lack thereof. Between now and Sunday, my predictions will be in Blue. During the awards, my incorrect pics will be changed to red and the winner will, well, say “winner” after it. I’m going to use a Will Win/Should Win/Did Win format. Color coding is a pain in the ass!
Best Motion Picture – Drama
The Descendants-Will win/Should win: I’m banking on the HFPA’s love of all things Clooney, here. Not only that, but its my favorite film of the year. – My review WINNER!!
The Help
Hugo
The Ides Of March – My review
Moneyball
War Horse
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Viola Davis – The Help
Rooney Mara – The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo Should win: Her transformation was astonishing, going far beyond simple nipple piercings (I say “simple,” but I ain’t doing it!). A thoroughly remarkable performance. – My review
Meryl Streep – Iron Lady Will win: This is as close to a lock as there is. Her performance was indeed great. Pity the film isn’t. – My review WINNER
Tilda Swinton – We Need To Talk About Kevin – My review
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
George Clooney – The Descendants Will win/Should win: See above. WINNER
Leonardo DiCaprio – J. Edgar – My review
Michael Fassbender – Shame – My review
Ryan Gosling – The Ides Of March
Brad Pitt – Moneyball
Best Motion Picture – Comedy Or Musical
50/50
The Artist Will Win/Should Win. My second favorite film of the year and a fantastically bold film. If someone had told me a year ago that the front-runner for the 2012 best picture Oscar was a black & white silent French film, I would have told them to check their dosage. – My review WINNER
Bridesmaids
Midnight In Paris
My Week With Marilyn – My review
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy Or Musical
Charlize Theron – Young Adult
Kristen Wiig – Bridesmaids
Michelle Williams – My Week With Marilyn Will win/Should win: A performance for the ages. WINNER
Kate Winslet – Carnage
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy Or Musical
Jean Dujardin – The Artist Will win/Should win. WINNER
Brendan Gleeson – The Guard
Joseph Gordon-Levitt – 50/50
Ryan Gosling – Crazy, Stupid, Love. – My review
Owen Wilson – Midnight In Paris
Best Animated Feature Film
The Adventures Of Tintin Will win. I can’t do a “should win” here because I haven’t seen most of these films. That said, Tintin is an absolute legend outside of the US and I would wager that most of the HFPA grew up reading Hergé’s books. WINNER
Arthur Christmas
Cars 2
Puss In Boots
Rango
Best Foreign Language Film
The Flowers Of War (China)
In The Land Of Blood And Honey (United States)
The Kid With A Bike (Belgium)
A Separation (Iran) Will win. I’ve only seen 2 of these films, but this film is so exceptional, I can’t imagine anything else winning. My review. WINNER
The Skin I Live In (Spain) My review
Best Performance by an Actress In A Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Berenice Bejo – The Artist
Jessica Chastain – The Help
Janet McTeer – Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer – The Help Will win. I’ve only seen 2 of these films, so I am going on “buzz” with this one. WINNER
Shailene Woodley – The Descendants She was great, but I think this is her “It’s an honor just to be nominated” year. She’s only 20 and has a bright future.
Best Performance by an Actor In A Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Kenneth Branagh – My Week With Marilyn
Albert Brooks – Drive
Jonah Hill – Moneyball
Viggo Mortensen – A Dangerous Method – My review
Christopher Plummer – Beginners Will win. WINNER
Best Director – Motion Picture
Woody Allen – Midnight In Paris
George Clooney – The Ides Of March
Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist Should win. I haven’t seen Hugo yet, but this is such an amazing achievement….
Alexander Payne – The Descendants
Martin Scorsese – Hugo Will win. WINNER
Best Screenplay – Motion Picture
Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist
Nat Faxon, Alexander Payne, Jim Rash – The Descendants Will win/Should win
George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon – The Ides Of March
Woody Allen – Midnight In Paris WINNER
Stan Chervin, Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian – Moneyball
Best Original Score – Motion Picture
Ludovic Bource – The Artist Will win WINNER.
Abel Korzeniowski – W.E.
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross – The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo Should win
Howard Shore – Hugo
John Williams – War Horse
Best Original Song – Motion Picture
Honestly, I haven’t the foggiest idea, here. I haven’t heard any of these songs, so I don’t have much to go on.
“Hello Hello” – Gnomeo & Juliet
Music By: Elton John; Lyrics By: Bernie Taupin
“Keeper, The” – Machine Gun Preacher
Music & Lyrics By: Chris Cornell
“Lay Your Head Down” – Albert Nobbs
Music By: Brian Byrne, Lyrics By: Glenn Close
“Living Proof, The” – The Help
Music By: Thomas Newman, Mary J. Blige, Harvey Mason, Jr. and Damon Thomas; Lyrics By: Mary J. Blige, Harvey Mason, Jr. and Damon Thomas
“Masterpiece” – W.E. Will win… I guess. WINNER
Music & Lyrics By: Madonna, Julie Frost and Jimmy Harry
Best Television Series – Drama
American Horror Story (FX)
Boardwalk Empire (HBO)Will win
Boss (STARZ)
Game Of Thrones (HBO)
Homeland (SHOWTIME) Should win WINNER! I’ve never been happier to be wrong. Well, maybe not never but you get the point!
Best Performance by an Actress In A Television Series – Drama
Claire Danes – Homeland (SHOWTIME) Will win/Should win WINNER
Mireille Enos – The Killing
Julianna Margulies – The Good Wife (CBS)
Madeleine Stowe – Revenge
Callie Thorne – Necessary Roughness
Best Performance by an Actor In A Television Series – Drama
Steve Buscemi – Boardwalk Empire (HBO)
Bryan Cranston – Breaking Bad Will win. Alas, Breaking Bad is one of my “TV shows I am ashamed to have missed,” so no “should win, here, although Damiel Lewis was amazing!
Kelsey Grammer – Boss (STARZ) WINNER. I guess TV Guide was right. The HFPA doesn’t like Breaking Bad and they love Frasier!
Jeremy Irons – The Borgias
Damian Lewis – Homeland (SHOWTIME)
Best Television Series – Comedy Or Musical
Enlightened (HBO)
Episodes (SHOWTIME)
Glee (FOX)
Modern Family (ABC) Will win/Should win. WINNER
New Girl (FOX)
Best Performance by an Actress In A Television Series – Comedy Or Musical
Laura Dern – Enlightened (HBO) WINNER. Wow, got that one wrong.
Zooey Deschanel – New Girl (FOX)
Tina Fey – 30 Rock (NBC) Will win
Laura Linney – The Big C (Showtime) Should win
Amy Poehler – Parks And Recreation
Best Performance by an Actor In A Television Series – Comedy Or Musical
Alec Baldwin – 30 Rock (NBC) Will win
David Duchovny – Californication (SHOWTIME) Should win.
Johnny Galecki – The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
Thomas Jane – Hung (HBO)
Matt LeBlanc – Episodes (SHOWTIME) WINNER
Best Mini-Series Or Motion Picture Made for Television
Cinema Verite (HBO)
Downton Abbey (Masterpiece) (PBS) Will win/Should win, although The Hour was amazing! WINNER
The Hour (BBC AMERICA)
Mildred Pierce (HBO)
Too Big To Fail (HBO)
Best Performance by an Actress In A Mini-series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Romola Garai – The Hour (BBC AMERICA) Should win
Diane Lane – Cinema Verite (HBO)
Elizabeth McGovern – Downton Abbey (Masterpiece) (PBS)
Emily Watson – Appropriate Adult
Kate Winslet – Mildred Pierce (HBO) Will win WINNER
Best Performance by an Actor in a Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Hugh Bonneville – Downton Abbey (Masterpiece) (PBS) Will win
Idris Elba – Luther Should win WINNER
William Hurt – Too Big To Fail (HBO)
Bill Nighy – Page Eight (Masterpiece)
Dominic West – The Hour (BBC AMERICA)
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Jessica Lange – American Horror Story (FX) WINNER. A great performance in a great show, but really? Maggie shoulda win.
Kelly MacDonald – Boardwalk Empire (HBO)
Maggie Smith – Downton Abbey (Masterpiece) (PBS)- Duh. Will win/Should win Dame Maggie is an international treasure.
Sofia Vergara – Modern Family (ABC)
Evan Rachel Wood – Mildred Pierce (HBO)
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Peter Dinklage – Game Of Thrones (HBO) Will win. WINNER
Paul Giamatti – Too Big To Fail (HBO)
Guy Pearce – Mildred Pierce (HBO)
Tim Robbins – Cinema Verite (HBO)
Eric Stonestreet – Modern Family (ABC)